100 Winners in a Row

   No shit - I have had 100 winning Football bets in a row! Over the last 6 weeks I have not put one foot wrong, and I'm hoping I continue my run well into the New Year.

   If you want to know exactly how I did it then sign up at Betfair using this code "VC6F3UGNL" and then get in contact with me at ross.taylor1@live.co.uk or leave a comment on this post.

   Here's the proof of my run:

Bet Number	Market	Settled date	Profit/loss (GBP)
100	Football / Arsenal v Newcastle : Arsenal +3	29-Dec-12 19:22	£0.28
99	Football / Arsenal v Newcastle : Newcastle +2	29-Dec-12 19:22	£1.42
98	Football / Brighton v Watford : Over/Under 6.5 Goals	29-Dec-12 19:16	£1.17
97	Football / Hibernian v Celtic : Over/Under 3.5 Goals	29-Dec-12 17:29	£2.11
96	Football / Nottm Forest v C Palace : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	29-Dec-12 16:58	£0.49
95	Football / Bolton v Birmingham : Match Odds	29-Dec-12 16:56	£0.16
94	Football / Stoke v Southampton : Over/Under 7.5 Goals	29-Dec-12 16:55	£5.09
93	Football / Middlesbrough v Blackpool : Over/Under 7.5 Goals	29-Dec-12 16:54	£0.78
92	Football / Wolves v Ipswich : Match Odds	29-Dec-12 16:53	£0.21
91	Football / Man Utd v West Brom : Over/Under 3.5 Goals	29-Dec-12 16:52	£5.27
90	Football / Fulham v Swansea : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	29-Dec-12 16:51	£1.05
89	Football / Sunderland v Tottenham : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	29-Dec-12 14:41	£2.11
88	Football / Queens Park v Rangers : Over/Under 2.5 Goals	29-Dec-12 14:36	£2.12
87	Football / Stoke v Liverpool : Over/Under 6.5 Goals	26-Dec-12 21:38	£0.09
86	Football / Dundee v Celtic : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	26-Dec-12 19:53	£1.42
85	Football / Stoke v Liverpool : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	26-Dec-12 19:48	£0.23
84	Football / Aston Villa v Tottenham : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	26-Dec-12 19:22	£7.12
83	Football / Nottm Forest v Leeds : Over/Under 7.5 Goals	26-Dec-12 14:08	£1.35
82	Football / Hearts v Dundee Utd : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	23-Dec-12 18:24	£2.11
81	Football / Chelsea v Aston Villa : Over/Under 8.5 Goals	23-Dec-12 17:51	£6.33
80	Football / Liverpool v Fulham : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	22-Dec-12 19:22	£2.11
79	Football / Liverpool v Fulham : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	22-Dec-12 19:22	£0.70
78	Football / C Palace v Huddersfield : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	22-Dec-12 19:16	£1.05
77	Football / Celtic v Ross Co : Over/Under 6.5 Goals	22-Dec-12 17:08	£2.11
76	Football / Celtic v Ross Co : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	22-Dec-12 17:08	£0.09
75	Football / Man City v Reading : Over/Under 1.5 Goals	22-Dec-12 16:56	£0.85
74	Football / Man City v Reading : Over/Under 2.5 Goals	22-Dec-12 16:56	£2.22
73	Football / Newcastle v QPR : Over/Under 2.5 Goals	22-Dec-12 16:55	£1.05
72	Football / Tottenham v Stoke : Over/Under 2.5 Goals	22-Dec-12 16:55	£1.05
71	Football / Southampton v Sunderland : Over/Under 3.5 Goals	22-Dec-12 16:54	£0.52
70	Football / Aberdeen v St Johnstone : Over/Under 3.5 Goals	22-Dec-12 16:53	£2.09
69	Football / West Brom v Norwich : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	22-Dec-12 16:52	£1.18
68	Football / West Ham v Everton : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	22-Dec-12 16:52	£1.05
67	Football / West Ham v Everton : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	22-Dec-12 16:52	£2.63
66	Football / Inter v Verona : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	18-Dec-12 21:58	£2.22
65	Football / Brighton v Millwall : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	18-Dec-12 21:45	£1.63
64	Football / Notts Co v Rotherham : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	18-Dec-12 21:40	£1.04
63	Football / Rangers v Annan Ath : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	18-Dec-12 21:38	£2.11
62	Football / West Brom v West Ham : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	16-Dec-12 17:54	£0.28
61	Football / West Brom v West Ham : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	16-Dec-12 17:54	£1.06
60	Football / Hoffenheim v Dortmund : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	16-Dec-12 16:19	£0.07
59	Football / Tottenham v Swansea : Over/Under 3.5 Goals	16-Dec-12 15:25	£2.45
58	Football / Lazio v Inter : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	15-Dec-12 21:44	£0.10
57	Football / Lazio v Inter : Over/Under 2.5 Goals	15-Dec-12 21:44	£1.04
56	Football / NEC Nijmegen v PSV : Over/Under 3.5 Goals	15-Dec-12 21:36	£0.53
55	Football / Blackpool v Blackburn : Over/Under 3.5 Goals	15-Dec-12 17:01	£1.17
54	Football / Celtic v St Mirren : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	15-Dec-12 16:57	£1.05
53	Football / Celtic v St Mirren : Over/Under 3.5 Goals	15-Dec-12 16:57	£2.11
52	Football / Norwich v Wigan : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	15-Dec-12 16:56	£1.05
51	Football / Birmingham v C Palace : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	15-Dec-12 16:56	£1.94
50	Football / Aberdeen v Kilmarnock : Over/Under 3.5 Goals	15-Dec-12 16:55	£1.05
49	Football / Man Utd v Sunderland : Over/Under 6.5 Goals	15-Dec-12 16:52	£1.17
48	Football / QPR v Fulham : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	15-Dec-12 16:52	£1.05
47	Football / Liverpool v Aston Villa : Over/Under 7.5 Goals	15-Dec-12 16:52	£1.05
46	Football / Liverpool v Aston Villa : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	15-Dec-12 16:51	£2.11
45	Football / Stoke v Everton : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	15-Dec-12 16:51	£0.86
44	Football / Hastings Utd v Harrogate Town : Over/Under 3.5 Goals	13-Dec-12 21:40	£1.05
43	Football / Swansea v Middlesbrough : Over/Under 2.5 Goals	12-Dec-12 21:38	£4.45
42	Football / Arbroath v Celtic : Over/Under 3.5 Goals	12-Dec-12 21:38	£0.91
41	Football / Newport County v Luton : Match Odds	11-Dec-12 21:39	£0.51
40	Football / Norwich v Aston Villa : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	11-Dec-12 21:39	£1.66
39	Football / Fulham v Newcastle : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	10-Dec-12 22:07	£1.05
38	Football / Sp Lisbon v Benfica : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	10-Dec-12 22:05	£1.36
37	Football / Man City v Man Utd : Match Odds	09-Dec-12 15:26	£0.57
36	Football / Eintracht Frankfurt v W Bremen : Over/Under 6.5 Goals	08-Dec-12 19:19	£1.80
35	Football / Leicester v Barnsley : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	08-Dec-12 17:11	£3.24
34	Football / Sunderland v Chelsea : Over/Under 6.5 Goals	08-Dec-12 16:53	£2.11
33	Football / Swansea v Norwich : Over/Under 8.5 Goals	08-Dec-12 16:53	£2.11
32	Football / Wigan v QPR : Over/Under 6.5 Goals	08-Dec-12 16:53	£1.80
31	Football / Arsenal v West Brom : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	08-Dec-12 16:52	£1.69
30	Football / Southampton v Reading : Over/Under 3.5 Goals	08-Dec-12 16:51	£1.05
29	Football / Shakhtar v Juventus : Over/Under 3.5 Goals	05-Dec-12 21:39	£1.66
28	Football / Norwich v Sunderland : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	02-Dec-12 17:54	£2.22
27	Football / Cardiff v Sheff Wed : Over/Under 2.5 Goals	02-Dec-12 17:01	£1.17
26	Football / Hoffenheim v W Bremen : Over/Under 7.5 Goals	02-Dec-12 16:19	£3.17
25	Football / Burnley v Blackburn : Over/Under 3.5 Goals	02-Dec-12 14:26	£2.11
24	Football / MK Dons v AFC Wimbledon : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	02-Dec-12 14:26	£1.05
23	Football / Reading v Man Utd : Over/Under 8.5 Goals	01-Dec-12 19:24	£2.17
22	Football / B Munich v Dortmund : Over/Under 3.5 Goals	01-Dec-12 19:23	£4.06
21	Football / Leicester v Derby : Over/Under 6.5 Goals	01-Dec-12 19:12	£1.05
20	Football / QPR v Aston Villa : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	01-Dec-12 17:00	£1.67
19	Football / Liverpool v Southampton : Over/Under 3.5 Goals	01-Dec-12 16:55	£2.18
18	Football / Fulham v Tottenham : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	01-Dec-12 16:54	£1.68
17	Football / Man City v Everton : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	01-Dec-12 16:53	£1.68
16	Football / Arsenal v Swansea : Over/Under 2.5 Goals	01-Dec-12 16:50	£1.05
15	Football / Birmingham v Middlesbrough : Over/Under 6.5 Goals	30-Nov-12 21:41	£1.57
14	Football / Wigan v Man City : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	28-Nov-12 21:53	£2.11
13	Football / Man Utd v West Ham : Over/Under 3.5 Goals	28-Nov-12 21:51	£2.11
12	Football / Stoke v Newcastle : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	28-Nov-12 21:40	£1.05
11	Football / Everton v Arsenal : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	28-Nov-12 21:40	£1.05
10	Football / Tottenham v Liverpool : Over/Under 5.5 Goals	28-Nov-12 21:39	£1.05
9	Football / Aberdeen v Inverness CT : Over/Under 6.5 Goals	27-Nov-12 21:46	£0.20
8	Football / Sheff Wed v Watford : Over/Under 6.5 Goals	27-Nov-12 21:46	£3.16
7	Football / Middlesbrough v Huddersfield : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	27-Nov-12 21:41	£2.12
6	Football / Fulham v Sunderland : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	18-Nov-12 17:08	£6.27
5	Football / Millwall v Leeds : Over/Under 2.5 Goals	18-Nov-12 15:11	£2.11
4	Football / St Pauli v Bochum : Over/Under 4.5 Goals	12-Nov-12 21:07	£2.11
3	Football / Aston Villa v Man Utd : Over/Under 7.5 Goals	10-Nov-12 19:25	£2.11
2	Football / Aston Villa v Man Utd : Over/Under 6.5 Goals	10-Nov-12 19:25	£2.11
1	Football / Cardiff v Hull : Over/Under 3.5 Goals	10-Nov-12 17:02	£1.04

Nice £28 on Betfair tonight........

Betting Profit & Loss

Ross Taylor 22-Dec-2012 22:04 Football: £18.70 | Special Bets: £9.69 | Tote: | Total P&L: £28.39 By the way "Sofabet" give great analysis on TV betting markets. http://sofabet.com/ They are particularly good on the Eurovision and the X Factor, but they also gave the nod on Louis Smith winning the X Factor tonight.

My take on Gambling Systems

   The first rule of Gambling Systems is never buy a Gambling System. Trust me, I’ve spent hundreds, if not thousands, on systems and they have all been absolute tosh. The vast majority take the form of progressive Staking plans hidden amongst some over elaborate story. For example:

   “For 28 years I worked as the stable hand for Martin Pipe. Over that time I heard the whispers and was part of all the major coups. Now I am giving you my secrets as I can no longer get a bet at my local shops. When David Pipe sends out two horses in one race back the one with longer odds. If that doesn’t win then wait until the next time this occurs and double your bet. Statistics show you will go no longer than X races without a win”.

Progressive betting doesn’t work. The Martingale system doesn’t work.

ASIDE: A martingale is any of a class of betting strategies that originated from and were popular in 18th century France. The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins his stake if a coin comes up heads and loses it if the coin comes up tails. The strategy had the gambler double his bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. The martingale strategy has been applied to roulette as well, as the probability of hitting either red or black is close to 50%.

   Since a gambler with infinite wealth will, almost surely, eventually flip heads, the martingale betting strategy was seen as a sure thing by those who advocated it. Of course, none of the gamblers in fact possessed infinite wealth, and the exponential growth of the bets would eventually bankrupt "unlucky" gamblers who chose to use the martingale. It is therefore a good example of a Taleb distribution – the gambler usually wins a small net reward, thus appearing to have a sound strategy. However, the gambler's expected value does indeed remain zero because the small probability that he will suffer a catastrophic loss exactly balances with his expected gain. The likelihood of catastrophic loss may not even be very small. The bet size rises exponentially. This, combined with the fact that strings of consecutive losses actually occur more often than common intuition suggests, can bankrupt a gambler quickly.

Casino betting limits eliminate the effectiveness of using the martingale strategy.

   So why have I mentioned something that doesn’t make money? You are not getting it are you? I am looking at this from the sellers point of view – not the mark’s point of view. Take a quick look at Ebay. Type “Betting System” into Ebay and select Completed Listings (200 to a page). You will see that Tens of Thousands has been spent on Betting Systems in the last couple of months. Do it yourself and see. Do you believe that the guys selling these systems are all ex-Jockeys who are in the know? The truth of the matter is that these are being sold by Internet Marketers. Guys in their bedroom, wearing a dressing gown, hunched over a laptop – guys just like us.

   To make money from this simply take a system (google to get free ones). Paper trade for a few weeks. Take the one showing the best profit and wrap it up within a story. For example say that your Grandad was an Equerry for the Queen Mother. He left you the system in his will or something like that. List on Ebay showing your results clearly.

   I would treat this business as a “cold shower”. In quickly and out quickly. Go for 5 x £5 profit sales on a certain system and then mothball it. I reckon you could do this 4 times a year and thereby make £100pa.

A Breakdown of my Simple Betting System

Take any League game in England or the SPL. Wait until the clock hits 81mins. Bet that the final score will be UNDER current number of goals + 2.5.

For example, if is is 1-1 then bet under 4.5g; if it is 4-1 bet under 7.5g. On most EPL games the market is liquid enough to have 1.01 or 1.02 on offer at that stage (my normal bet is £100 or £200).

Where real money can be made is when goals are scored after the 81st minute. Imagine a game is 1-1 at the 81min mark. You are too late to get a bt on however a goal is sunk at the 85th minute. The under 4.5g market will come back alive at c. 1.05 to 1.08. At this point I would once again go in with a £100 or £200 bet. Don't worry if a match seems like a goal fest and is 6-5 at the 81st minute and don't worry if a team is down to 9 men. The above rule works whatever the circumstances.

The average odds you'll get on the system are c. 1.03 meaning you roughly need to win 34 out of 35 bets to be in profit. In reality I've found that I can go months and months without a loser. Indeed the only times I ever fail is when I go off-piste and try to be fancy by betting cup games (where there is more to play for right up to the final whistle), betting Spanish games (where Barca run a team ragged for 80 mins and then go all out for the last section of the match) or by betting at the 79th minute or earlier.

If you have discipline you could really make a go of this statistical anomaly. Using Kelly Stakes or half Kelly Stakes would greatly improve the profitability. The next step with the system would be to see at what minute you would be safe to bet that the final score would be UNDER current number of goals + 3.5.

The Steady Drip Always Fills the Bucket..........

   More Betfair income tonight. Nothing to celebrate remember that the Steady Drip always fills the bucket:

Betting Profit & Loss

Ross Taylor 28-Nov-2012 22:02 Football: £7.37 | Tote: | Total P&L: £7.37

Nice day at the Betfair Office

   Won just short of £120 today. Nice. Bit pissed off that Celtic beat Barcelona though.

Betting Profit & Loss

Ross Taylor 07-Nov-2012 22:00

Football: £11.65
Politics: £106.48
Tote:
Total P&L: £118.13

Betfair Profits

   Had plenty of peace today so had my first real Betfair session of this season. Returns were good but include £30 I won on Frankel's swansong.

Betting Profit & Loss


Ross Taylor 20-Oct-2012 17:06

Horse Racing: £31.63
Soccer: £33.18
Tote:
Total P&L: £64.81

Perth Racecourse System

   A few months ago I mentioned that I thought that Perth Racecourse seemed to have less long odds winners than elsewhere. Here is what I found:

* Of the 40 checked Handicap races at Perth this season, only two had winners at odds of greater than 10/1. 2 of the 40 were odds on.

* Of the 27 checked Non Handicap races, only two had winners with odds of greater than 10/1. 3 of the 27 were odds on.

Earlier this year I won over £600 on the Cheltenham Friday Placepot by using Ten year trends. Races at Perth don't have the prestige to build up such a history but this may change and is worth monitorring.

I would say that if you stuck to horses in the EVS to 10/1 range in Handicaps at Perth you won't go far wrong. I'm guessing that Favourites don't have a great time of it at Perth but I can't confirm this.

That brings me to the second piont. When you search for UK football stats you can get a wealth of data within a few clicks. When you search for UK Horse racing stats you hit a tolbooth very quickly. A good site would be a free to view Horse Racing site perhaps focussing on the Scottish courses.